Investigating the Impact of Region and Living Standards on Fertility Trends: An Analysis of Potential and Counterfactual Outcomes
Abstract
This study investigates the determinants of fertility in Algeria by analysing the dual influence of spatial location and household living standards. Using data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS-6), the research adopts a Potential and Counterfactual Outcomes framework to disentangle the causal effects of geography versus economy. The application of Average Treatment Effects (ATE) and Potential Outcome Means (POmeans) reveals a remarkable equivalence between the “power of place” and the “power of wealth”. Spatially, results highlight a persistent North-South gradient, identifying the Southern region as a distinct demographic regime where environmental and cultural factors sustain high fertility rates independent of individual characteristics. Socio-economically, the analysis detects a “wealth threshold”, showing that significant fertility declines are contingent upon reaching the middle class, while improvements at the lowest income levels yield negligible changes. These findings challenge the “one-size-fits-all” approach to population policy, emphasizing the need for targeted economic interventions combined with region-specific educational sensitization programs to address the structural inertia of high-fertility zones.References
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