The "low tide" of tourist flows in the COVID-19 era. Insights into the economic and social shades of the ongoing phenomenon

Authors

  • Stefania Cerutti Dipartimento di Studi per l'Economia e l'Impresa, University of Piemonte Orientale, Novara, Italy
  • Stefano De Falco Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global crisis. Many countries have implemented restrictions on population movement, instituting full or partial lockdowns in Spring 2020 as nowadays. The Coronavirus emergency has imposed the need to introduce restrictions that have also had a great impact on tourism. The interventions of the European Commission and the containment policies of the population adopted by different member States, as well as by those outside Europe, have resulted in the closure and crisis of the tourism sector in most of the destinations. What it can be observed it’s a sort of “low tide†of the tourist flows all around the world. Moving from these considerations, the paper aims at contributes to the debate on the binomial COVID-19 and tourism. After an introductory frame of the pandemic ongoing phenomenon, the paper focuses on the dynamics relating to the crucial sectors of air and cruise tourism, moving then to the analysis of the coastal and inland areas’ situation. The proposed analysis is developed through the consideration of three elements characterizing the current scenario: the relevance of the pandemic shock wave; the adaptability of companies and operators’ behaviour to changes and challenges; the unexpected and countertrend situation of arising positive externalities in some areas, such as the internal ones.

References

Arminio F., Geografia commossa dell’Italia interna, Milano, Bruno Mondadori, 2013.

Assaeroporti, Traffico negli aeroporti italiani, IV trimestre 2019, 2019 https://assaeroporti.com/wp-content/uploads/Report_IV_Trimestre_2019_Ott_Dic.pdf

Barca F., Strategia nazionale per le aree interne: definizione, obiettivi, strumenti e governance, Roma, Materiali UVAL, 2014.

CDCP, Cruise Ship No Sail Order Extended through September 2020 https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0716-cruise-ship-no-sail-order.html (accessed on 16 October 2020)

CDP Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Trasporto aereo e Covid-19: Alcuni fatti stilizzati, Brief, CDP Think Thank, 12 June 2020 https://www.cdp.it/sitointernet/page/it/sistema_aeroportuale_italiano?contentId=TNK30225

Cerutti S., “Geografie perdute, storie ritrovate: percorsi di partecipazione e sviluppo locale nelle Terre di Mezzo”, Rivista Geografica Italiana, 2019, 3, pp. 57-80.

Cheer J.M., Lew A.A., Sustainable tourism development: Towards resilience in tourism. Interaction, 2017, 45, 1, 10-15.

Chinazzi M., Davis J.T., Ajelli M., Gioannini C., Litvinova M., Merler S., Sun, K., “The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak”, Science, 2020, 368, pp. 395-400.

Chung L.H., “Impact of pandemic control over airport economics: Reconciling public health with airport business through a streamlined approach in pandemic control”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 2015, 44, pp. 42–53

Ciaschi A., Vincenti G., “Spopolamento e abbandono nelle aree inter-ne dell’Italia contemporanea”, in Macchi G., Palumbo A. (eds by), Territori Spezzati. Luogo e identità: due prospettive sull’abbandono, CISGE - Centro Italiano per gli Studi Storico-Geografici, Roma, 2019, pp. 45-52.

CIN, Cruise Industry News, Cruise Ship Order Book, 2020. https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/cruise-ship-orderbook.html (accessed on 16 October 2020)

CLIA, State of the Cruise Industry. Outlook 2020 https://cruising.org/en-gb/news-and-research/research/2019/december/state-of-the-cruise-industry-outlook-2020 (accessed on 16 October 2020)

D’Orazio M., Bernardini G., Quagliarini, E., Sustainable and resilient strategies for touristic cities against COVID-19: an agent-based approach, preprint version - Submitted to Safety Science, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12547

De Falco S. (2020), “Scattering geografico nelle aree interne nella diffusione del COVID-2019”, Documenti Geografici, 2020, 1, pp. 141-154.

DNA, La Industria Turística y el COVID 19, La opinión de la demanda: Intención de compra de productos y servicios turísticos – Nuevos hábitos de consumo turístico, DNA Turismo y Ocio, Barcelona, 23-27 Abril 2020.

Forleo M.B., Giannelli A., Giaccio V., Palmieri N., Mastronardi L., “Geosites and Parks for the Sustainable Development of Inner Areas: The Matese Mountain (Italy)”, Geojournal of Tourism and Geosites, 2017, 20, pp. 231-242.

Gasparini M.L., “Dall’abbandono al recupero: le prospettive di rifunzionalizzazione di alcune aree interne della Campania colpite dal terremoto del 1980”, in Macchi G., Palumbo A. (eds by), Territori Spezzati. Luogo e identità: due prospettive sull’abbandono, CISGE - Centro Italiano per gli Studi Storico-Geografici, Roma, 2019, pp. 97-104.

Gössling S., Fernandez S., Martin-Rios C., Pasamar S., Fointiat V., Isaac R.K., Lunde M., “Restaurant tipping in Europe. A comparative assessment”, Current Issues in Tourism, 2020 (a), pp.1-13.

Gössling S., Scott D., Hall C.M., “Pandemics, tourism and global change: A rapid assessment of COVID-19”, J Sustainable Tourism, 2020 (b), pp. 1-20.

Grech V., Grech P., Fabri S., “A risk balancing act–tourism competition using health leverage in the COVID-19 era”, International Journal of Risk & Safety in Medicine, 1-5, 2020.

Gursoy D., Chi C.G., Chi, O. H., COVID-19 Report for the Restaurant and Hotel Industry - Restaurant and hotel customers’ sentiment analysis: Would they come back? If they would, when?, USA, 2020

Higgins-Desbiolles F., “The war over tourism: challenges to sustainable tourism in the tourism academy after COVID-19”, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2020 (b), 1-19.

Higgins-Desbiolles, F., “Socialising tourism for social and ecological justice after COVID-19”, Tourism Geographies, 2020 (a), 22, 3, pp. 610–623.

IATA (a). Economic Performance of the Airline Industry. Retrieved April 4, 2020, from https://www.iata.org/contentassets/f88f0ceb28b64b7e9b46de44b917b98f/iata-economic-performance-of-the-industry-end-year-2018-report.pdf

IATA (b). After challenging year, improvement expected for 2020. Retrieved April 5, 2020, from https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2019-12-11-01/

IATA (c). COVID-19 updated impact assessment. Retrieved March 24, 2020 from https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/third-impact-assessment/

Institute of International Finance (IIF), IIF Capital Flows Tracker, The COVID-19 cliff, Washington D.C., IIF, April 2020 https://www.iif.com/Portals/0/Files/content/1_IIF_Capital%20Flows%20Tracker_April.pdf

Interface Tourism, Étude prévisions de voyage post-Covid 19, Interface Tourism France, 2020.

ISTAT (a), Trasporto aereo: andamento e scenari, Statistiche Today, Economia https://www.istat.it/it/files/2020/05/Trasporto-aereo.pdf

ISTAT (b), Risultati economici delle imprese e delle multinazionali a livello territoriale, Frame ISB, Anno 2017, 2020 https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/06/REPORT_Frame-territoriale_2017.pdf

Lucatelli S., “Strategia Nazionale per le Aree Interne: Un punto a due anni dal lancio della Strategia”, Agriregionieuropa, 2016, 45, pp. 4-10.

Meersman H., Van de Voorde E., Vanelslander T., “The Air Transport Sector after 2010: A Modified Market and Ownership Structure”, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 2008, 8, 2, pp. 71-90.

MIBACT, Piano Strategico di Sviluppo Del Turismo, Rome, MIBACT, 2017.

Moriarty L.F., Plucinski M.M., Marston B.J., Kurbatova E.V., Knust B., Murray E.L., Pesik N., Rose D., Fitter D., Kobayashi M., Toda M., Canty P.T., Scheuer T., Halsey E.S., Cohen N.J., Stockman L., Wadford D. A., Medley A.M., Green G., Regan J.J., Tardivel K., Richards J., “Public health responses to COVID-19 outbreaks on cruise ships worldwide”, February-March 2020. MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 69, 12, pp. 347-352.

Nasdaq, Stocks, 2020. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks (accessed on 21 October 2020).

Navarro Jurado E., Ortega Palomo G., Torres Bernier E., Propuestas de reflexion desde el turismo frente al COVID-19. Incertidumbre, impacto y recuperacion. Instituto Universitario de Investigación de Inteligencia e Innovación Turística de la Universidad de Málaga.

Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.

UNWTO. (2020). Impact assessment of the COVID 19 outbreak on international tourism. Updated 27 March 2020. https://www.unwto.org/impact-assessment-of-the-covid-19-outbreak-on-international-tourism.

Nepal S.K., “Travel and tourism after COVID-19–business as usual or opportunity to reset?”, Tourism Geographies, 2020, 22, 3, pp. 1-5.

Nutley S., Davies H.T., “Getting research into practice: making a reality of evidence-based practice: some lessons from the diffusion of innovations” Public money and management, 2020, 20, 4, pp. 35–42.

OECD, The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on development finance, Tackling coronavirus (COVID‑19). Contributing to a global effort, 24 June 2020 http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-crisis-on-development-finance-9de00b3b/

Páez M.A.P., “El impacto de la COVID-19 en el turismo: Apuntes para su esbozo”, Observador del Conocimiento, 2020, 5, 3 pp. 93-101.

Pettenati G., “Progetti di territorio: i paesaggi italiani nella World Heritage List dell’Unesco”, Rivista Geografica Italiana, 2016, 123, 4, pp. 525-543.

Qiu R.T., Park J., Li S., Song H., “Social costs of tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic”, Annals of Tourism Research, 2020, 84.

Radic A., “Crisis management in cruise tourism: A case study of Dubrovnik”, AT-TIJ, 2015, 8, pp. 29-44.

Radic A., Law R., Lück M., Kang H., Ariza-Montes A., Arjona-Fuentes J.M., Han H., “Apocalypse now or overreaction to coronavirus: The global cruise tourism industry crisis”, Sustainability, 2020, 12, 17, 6968.

Risposte Turismo - Speciale Crociere http://www.risposteturismo.it/speciale-crociere/

Romagosa F., “The COVID-19 crisis: Opportunities for sustainable and proximity tourism”, Tourism Geographies, 2020, 1, 1-5.

TCI and HERTZ, Survey 2020 https://www.ttgitalia.com/stories/trasporti/163839_come_cambia_il_turismo_i_dati_dellindagine_hertz_e_tci/

UNWTO (a), UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, May 2020,18, 2.

UNWTO (b), UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, October 2020, 18, 6.

UNWTO (c), UNWTO Convenes Global Tourism Crisis Committee, 20 March 2020, https://www.unwto.org/unwto-convenes-global-tourism-crisis-committee

UNWTO (d), Supporting jobs and economies through travel & tourism. Call for action to mitigate the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 and accelerate recovery https://webunwto.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2020-04/COVID19_Recommendations_English_1.pdf

VVF, Les Français et les vacances - Les premiers impacts du confinement, VVF Ingénierie, Paris, 202

Williams A.M., Baláž V., “Tourism risk and uncertainty: Theoretical reflections”, Journal of Travel Research, 2015, 54, 3, pp. 271–287.

World Bank. (2020a). Air transport, passengers carried. Retrieved April 4, 2020, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/is.air.psgr

World Bank. (2020b). International tourism, number of arrivals. Retrieved April 4, 2020, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL

WTTC, Research Note: Travel & Tourism Recovery Scenarios 2020 and Economic Impact from COVID-19 https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact/Recovery-Scenarios-2020-Economic-Impact-from-COVID-19

Downloads

Published

2020-12-23

Issue

Section

A geographical and crosscutting look at the COVID-19 pandemic in an international framework (ed. by Cristiano Pesaresi)