Forecast of the foreign component in the Italian population to 2050


  • Corrado Polli INAPP – National Institute for the Analysis of Public Policies, Rome, Italy
  • Aldo Rosano INAPP – National Institute for the Analysis of Public Policies, Rome, Italy
  • Oliviero Casacchia Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy


Although migrants are young when they arrive, they will age if they are allowed to stay in the destination country. Available data show that the foreign component of the European population is experiencing an aging process even in countries where net migratory gains are substantial. In Italy in the period from 2002 to 2021 the number of migrants aged 65 and over increased from 41 thousand to 274 thousand, the share of over 65s was 3.0% in 2002 and almost doubled in 2021, reaching 5.5%. Studies specifically concerning the demographic forecasts of the foreign population are scarce and can be of great interest as these processes have direct repercussions on the composition of the job offer and inevitable and economic repercussions regarding health and pension spending. For this purpose, the study adopts a stochastic approach based on the properties of the event-point processes which allowed to make forecasts on the overall population residing in Italy by 2050, highlighting the foreign component.


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